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January 05, 2012

Romney Big Loser from Iowa Caucuses


(UPI/Brian Kersey)

 

By MARIO CASH

Mitt Romney had the most votes - eight more than Rick Santorum - in the Iowa Caucuses. But Romney only gathered 25 percent of the votes, which netted him a statistical tie with the ultra-conservative Santorum, who was polling in the single digits just a few weeks back.

Romney's 25 percent mark in 2012 was nearly identical to his Iowa placing in 2008. Even more so, it is roughly equivalent to where he has been at in the polls nationwide for months. The moderate Mormon from Massachusetts and Michigan can't get over this one-quarter of the Republican populace number. It really seems that he has a ceiling because of his liberal and flip-flopping past. And the carnage from Iowa spells more trouble for him.

Michele Bachmann, with a poor showing five percent finish, is out. Say good bye to Rick Perry either now or after South Carolina later and all his money as well; only ten percent of the ballots cast in Iowa carried his name. On the surface, the narrowing of the field would seem to benefit Romney. But it doesn't. The more candidates, the merrier for the former Massachusetts governor.

With so many GOP hopefuls vying for the Evangelical and conservative votes - Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry and Ron Paul - the numbers get spread out. This gives Romney, who has massive establishment and media support, the opportunity to eke out a victory in many states' primaries and, ultimately, catch the nomination. Twenty-five percent could actually be enough for Romney to win because all of the other candidates are eating each other's votes.

Now that Perry and Bachmann are gone, there's a substantial number of votes to be gobbled up by the remaining candidates. Romney is the least likely to obtain this support. Had the Texas governor and Minnesota congresswoman not been in the Iowa race, Santorum would have won by a significant margin, or Ron Paul would've made it to first place. Gingrich also would've fared better. Romney would've remained stagnant at 25 percent. 

A commonsense analysis reveals that Ron Paul will benefit sizably from the Perry and Bachmann departures, despite what mainstream talking heads - acting on behalf of the GOP establishment - propagandize. Perry hails from Texas, as does Paul. This fact, coupled with Perry's fiscally conservative message, will cause some voters to turn to the Texas doctor. Paul will snatch up even more from Bachmann's limited base. A favorite of the now partially fractured Tea Party, Bachmann is a mere descendent of the movement that was fathered by Paul. He will get a good portion of Bachmann's support.

Former Pennsylvania Senator and now frontrunner, Rick Santorum, and former House Speaker, Newt Gingrich, will split up the balance of the Perry/Bachmann votes. The more conventional Evangelicals and conservatives will gravitate to them. They aren't interested in Romney, who lost a lot more from Iowa than he gained from his befuddling 8-vote "win." 

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