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Home > Columnists > Doug Strassler
January 06, 2018

2018 Film Golden Globe Predictions

by Doug Strassler

 

Best Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

“Call Me by Your Name”

“Dunkirk”

“The Post”

“The Shape of Water”

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win: “The Post”

Could Win: “Dunkirk”

Should Win: “Call Me By Your Name”

Overlooked: “Beach Rats”

There are some credible nominees in this category, but no inarguable masterpiece. Of these, “Call Me By Your Name” comes closest, while “The Shape of Water” resembles the type of epic genre film Globe voters have come to adore in recent years (“Avatar,” “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” “The Revenant”). Still, as at the Emmys this year, I expect most winners to make a political statement. “The Post” represents the most obvious choice, then. It’s a liberal chest-pounder that also allows journalists to salute themselves.

 

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

“The Disaster Artist”

“Get Out”

“The Greatest Showman”

“I, Tonya”

“Lady Bird”

Will Win: “Lady Bird”

Could Win: “Get Out”

Should Win: “Lady Bird”

Overlooked: “The Big Sick”

This looks like a two-way race between “Get Out” and “Lady Bird,” two of the year’s best-reviewed movies, but, oddly, ones that were each left out of the Best Director field. Those that feel “Get Out,” which, structurally, is more of a comedy than a drama, is too much of a horror film, may opt for Greta Gerwig’s note-perfect autobiographical film.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

Timothee Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”

Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”

Tom Hanks, “The Post”

Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”

Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esquire”

Will Win: Oldman

Could Win: Chalamet

Should Win: Chalamet

Overlooked: Jim Broadbent, “The Sense of an Ending,” Harris Dickinson, “Beach Rats”

Let’s be real: this category sucks. Washington’s nomination is the most unnecessary one in this category since Tobey Maguire in “Brothers,” Hanks is serviceable, and Day-Lewis demonstrates craft but probably got in here because he declared this his last film role. Oldman has been the frontrunner here for months (the “he’s overdue” mentality), but his film has lost momentum, while Chalamaet, terrific in the movie, has been making the grounds to promote himself. That kind of campaigning works especially well at the Globes.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama Nominees

Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”

Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Michelle Williams, “All the Money in the World”

Will Win: Hawkins

Could Win: Streep

Should Win: Streep

Overlooked: Cynthia Nixon, “A Quiet Passion”

There’s a great  mix of talent in this category — in fact, all of these actresses are previous Globe winners. McDormand, the early favorite, may have lost momentum due to her flawed film, while voters seems enchanted by “The Shape of Water.” I give her the edge, but don’t count out Streep, bother for her performance in “The Post” and for her performance in accepting her Cecil B. DeMille Award last year.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”

Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”

James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”

Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”

Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”

Will Win: Franco

Could Win: Kaluuya

Should Win: Kaluuya

Overlooked: Kumail Nanjiani, "The Big Sick"

In contrast to the above, this is a relatively weak category. Look for the absurd hyphenate Franco to win here.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees

Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”

Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”

Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”

Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”

Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”

Will Win: Ronan

Could Win: Robbie

Should Win: Ronan

Overlooked: Regina Hall, “Girls Trip”

After turns in such films as “Atonement,” “Brooklyn,” and now “Lady Bird,” Ronan has proven herself to easily be the best actress of her generation. (I said it. Easily.) While Robbie’s film continues to gain momentum, I expect Ronan to prevail here. And for it to only be the first statuette of her promising career.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Nominees

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”

Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”

Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”

Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”

Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will Win: Dafoe

Could Win: Rockwell

Should Win: Jenkins

Overlooked: Michael Stuhlbarg, “Call Me By Your Name”

As always, this category rewards the veteran character actors. Dafoe is winning in “The Florida Project,” but he’s merely audience surrogate — he doesn’t play a fully-arced role. And it’s nice to see Rockwell nominated at last, but his character takes too many turns to be believable. Hammer is the least convincing part of his film, and this category would have benefited from seeing co-star Michael Stuhlbarg instead. The most empathetic performance comes from Jenkins,  who added credibility and nuance to an otherwise ill-conceived character.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture Nominees

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”

Hong Chau, “Downsizing”

Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”

Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”

Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Will Win: Metcalf

Could Win: Janney

Should Win: Metcalf

Overlooked: Lois Smith, “Marjorie Prime”

Metcalf never won a Globe during her seminal tenure on “Roseanne,” but she offers another career best opposite Ronan in “Lady Bird.” It’d be a crime for her to lose, but if she does, look to Janney to unseat her.

 

Best Director – Motion Picture Nominees

Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”

Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”

Ridley Scott, “All the Money in the World”

Steven Spielberg, “The Post”

Will Win: del Toro

Could Win: Nolan, Spielberg

Should Win: del Toro

Overlooked: Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele

The big story here is who wasn’t nominated: the directors of the year’s most applauded movies. instead, this category features the tried-and-true demographic of white men, including Scott, in what seems like a political move in a post-Kevin Spacey, post-Harvey Weinstein world. In a relatively anemic field, del Toro deserves this.

 

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture Nominees

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”

Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”

Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, “The Post”

Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”

Will Win: Gerwig

Could Win: McDonagh

Should Win: Gerwig

Overlooked: Jordan Peele, “Get Out”

There are some dependable, lauded screenwriters in this category, but only Gerwig wrote the year’s most perfect movie.

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